New Train

Or at least a greatly revised web site. The first in a series of changes to the PERS web site went live today. Many of the changes are the result of input from a focus group PERS selected (yours truly is included). If you haven't been to the PERS website in awhile, you should find the new site much easier to navigate and important information more prominently displayed. I'm not much of a style maven, but the color scheme seems a bit garish to me. But that's my opinion and I have no room to quibble, especially after the color choices I've made in putting together blogs and websites.

In other news, a PERS-sponsored bill to eliminate the "Break In Service" statute enacted in 2003 has gotten its first hearing. This statute has created more havoc, more unintended consequences, and more headaches for PERS and for many employers and employees than anyone imagined when HB 3020 (formerly 2020) passed in 2003. The City of Portland has blessed PERS' efforts to eliminate the rule, as has the PERS Coalition. Our friendly Oregon School Boards Association is opposed to eliminating the rule, in part no doubt because they were instrumental in drafting it during 2003. Hopefully this statute is headed for the dustbin of history.

Home at Last

We arrived home safe and sound yesterday. We managed to keep the jet lag to a minimum by an old trick of forcing ourselves to stay away through two long flights. By the time we were on the west coast, we were sufficiently exhausted to sleep all the way through the night and wake up totally on West Coast time. It doesn't work perfectly, but minimizes the amount of jet lag we experience. By Thursday or Friday we'll be a bit strung out, but it should last only a couple of days. Until then, I can fake coherence.

Obviously nothing of substance took place while I was gone. The Oregonian seems to have had an article extolling the management of PERS and lavishing praise on the Board, which has taken a large deficit and converted it to a $1.75 billion surplus. No mention is made of the fact that the unions predicted this would happen by a market change without any reform. Surprise, surprise, the stock market has been on a roll since 2003 with new records being broken daily. Little wonder the PERS fund is as healthy as it is. Now, if the public could only understand that it was market forces that put PERS in the hole in the first place, not outsized public employee pensions. But I'll be dead before the Oregonian or the public makes that admission.

While I was gone, I decided to change my image a la London style. You can see the results of this change here. It just seem appropriate for me so that I can continue to remain low profile. Sorry for the image quality. No flash permitted and I didn't have a tripod handy. Even Photoshop couldn't clean up the blur, but you'll get the point anyway.

Who are You

At the suggestion of others, I'm interested in polling all the non-PERS individuals who read my blog. So here's your chance to respond. If you've already voted, don't vote again.

Now that we know about PERS members and retirees, let's find out about the others who read this blog
	Attorney
	Judge
	MSM Journalist
	Blogger
	Related to a PERS member
	Have no PERS affiliation
	none of these
pollcode.com free polls

So Quiet In Here

You can almost hear a pin drop. The only news of substance I have to report prior to my departure is that the PERS Retiree Focus Group has had one online query. It concentrated on the current layout of the PERS website and how and whether PERS should make information more readily available. The group offered some suggestions of what other information would be helpful and some navigation hints. These were taken seriously and some reorganization of the website will be forthcoming. The group was also asked about the desireability of making our names public or at least available to each other. Obviously you know my feeling about that subject, but my opinion was not shared by a majority of the (unknown) group. So, we will continue to operate ignorant of each other's identity. (We don't communicate in a forum; we don't even see what each other writes. It's not really a focus group in the strict sense as it is 9 independent voices providing input to PERS. I wish it were a real focus group where we are all involved simultaneously. I also wish I were a billionaire :-)

On The Road Again

I'm getting ready to take another road trip this week. I'll be out of blogging range until April 30th. I'll probably have internet access, but at the rates charged, I probably won't be posting mundane items. If a major development occurs, I'll try to find time to blog about it, but this isn't my highest priority. It hasn't been very often that I've had travel time without children and with a housesitter. So, my wife and I will be trundling off for a quick jump across the pond to visit friends in the UK. Retirement *is* good.

This is Us

Here's a new poll to gauge the readership of this blog. Please take the poll below. To make it accurate, please answer the question only once. Thanks.

What is your PERS retirement status
	Active Tier 1
	Inactive Tier 1
	Window Retiree, old actuarial tables
	Window Retiree, new actuarial tables
	Window Retiree, "Lookback"
	Post-Window Retiree, new actuarial tables
	Post-Window Retiree, "lookback"
	Tier 2 or Tier 3 active
	OUS ORP active
pollcode.com free polls

Another Round of Blues

Over the past few posts (except my April Fool's post), we've been exploring the plight of a narrow group of retirees whose benefit was calculated on the basis of the "lookback" - a legislatively designed method to ensure IRS compliance when the new actuarial tables went into effect on July 1, 2003 (HB 2004, 2003 Legislature). You can review previous entries to see how this particular calculation has led to some perverse outcomes for retirees subject to the Strunk/Eugene remediation efforts. The short version is that when the Strunk/Eugene adjustments are made, the "lookback" no longer gives the best retirement estimate. Instead, retirees are finding that they have significantly higher at-retirement account balances and are re-retiring under a straight Money Match calculation using the higher balance. While at first blush this might seem to be very good news (and most people in that situation thought that would be the case), the fact is that the higher account balances don't translate into higher retirement benefits. Instead, the higher balances become subject to the new mortality tables, which are considerably less generous than the tables they replaced. Consequently, retirees who find themselves in this situation are faced with benefits lower than they were receiving under the original "lookback". In some cases, the benefit cut is significant - several hundred dollars per month. When a spate of these started showing up in my mailbox, I walked through the calculations in the instances where I had all the relevant data. Alas, there is nothing wrong with PERS' calculations. I suggested that affected individuals contact the PERS Coalition through its attorney, Greg Hartman. Several did and this resulted in the PERS Coalition publishing a brief response on the AFSCME web site. The short answer is that while these cases are unfortunate, they do not appear to be litigable, or at least the PERS Coalition isn't going to litigate them. I don't know how many retirees are in this boat. I heard from 16 individuals. In the time period where this effect could possibly occur, there were a total of about 5000 retirements. Based on my own experience and communications, I would say about half those retirements were "lookback." Of those, I'd guess that approximately half will experience what my correspondents have experienced. The key factors will be age at retirement, retirement option, and percentage of account in variable. Younger individuals are less likely to experience this than retirees 60 and over. This is because the mortality factor changes are more evident for older retirees than the younger ones.

On an unrelated topic, I want to alert everyone to another "quiet" period for this blog. I'm leaving on April 21st for London and returning April 30. I will have my laptop with me, but I don't know how easy it will be for me to have wireless access. Our friends don't have it, so I may have to depend on finding a handy Starbucks or equivalent. Given the current exchange rate, I'll probably ration my time online. So, don't expect too much news from this source during that time period.

Party At The End of the World

I've returned from my Spring Break party at the end of the world (or at least at the tip of it) and found a piece of spectacular news awaiting. It seems that the PERB has decided to withdraw its complaints in the Arken and Robinson cases and has joined forces with the PERS Coalition. From the looks of what they're doing, they finally understand what the Supreme Court ruled in Strunk and plan to give "window retirees" everything they're entitled to receive - adjusted current benefits, restored COLA and the like. A spokesman from one of the PERB's law firms Dewey, Cheatham, and Howe said: "It took us quite awhile to parse the wording of the majority opinion in the Strunk et al case, but just last week it dawned on us that the Supreme Court wrote the words "fixed benefit" and said that because it was legislatively determined, it cannot be in error. Therefore, we plan to re-remediate the collection efforts and turn it into a method by which PERS repays all the retirees for lost COLAS and any associated expenses. Because the mechanism is already in place, we will first adjust those members who've already been invoiced and then we will address those members whose accounts have not been touched. It is a complex task, but we should be able to complete all account adjustments by 2009." This seems like such an anticlimactic end to such a long and exhausting process, and I'm a little disappointed at how easy this has been to resolve. I wonder if the Governor was involved in bringing the PERB to its senses. In any case, be sure to mark this day on your calendar as the day this exclusive news appeared, just in case PERS changes its mind tomorrow. [And in case you haven't noticed, do check today's date for important clues about the veracity of the information contained in this post.]

Soon As I Get Paid

I now have permission to share with you the Special Master's Report to the Supreme Court in the matter of Attorneys' fees in the Strunk case. The report is here. I also have a copy of Stipulation 1, which pertains to OPRI's attorneys' fees. It is here. It appears from reading these reports that retirees have won their battle for attorney fees, but it unclear how they might benefit from this ruling. If OPRI keeps its promise, those of us who donated to their Legal Defense fund might expect a refund of our donations -- that was the promise Jack Sollis made to members who donated. It seems only reasonable since PERS is going to "ding" retirees for their "win". Of course, all of this is predicated on the assumption that the Supreme Court accepts Judge Breithaupt's recommendations without modification. The unfortunate news is that there is nothing in the Special Master's report that would compel the Supreme Court to clarify its Strunk ruling as it pertains to the "fixed benefit" and its computation "without error". We had hoped that in the attorney fee hearings that this issue would be forced in order for the Supreme Court to declare how retiree's had "won". Alas, nothing in the report seems to force that clarification. On the other hand, having this out of the way removes any further obstacles to getting rulings in Arken and Robinson. Many believe Judge Kantor was waiting for the Special Master to issue his report and for the Supreme Court to clarify its Strunk ruling. Since that isn't likely to happen, Judge Kantor will be forced to rule on the merits of the cases before him without any "help" from the Supreme Court. Enjoy your reading.

On a totally unrelated subject, I will be out of the country from March 23rd to March 31st on a family vacation. I will have no access to email, the internet, or phone service. Do not expect anything posted here, on my other web site, or on the PERS Discussion Group at Yahoo. I will be truly out of contact (the sound you hear is my family cheering).

Call Me

I have been selected as one of 9 retirees to participate in a PERS focus group. Its purpose is to deal with communication issues and other problems relating to PERS' interactions with PERS retirees. If you have any specific concerns you'd like to share with me to share with the group when we get organized, please feel free to drop me an email at a special email address I've set up for these communications. Send your note to me here: enochroot1947-persissues@yahoo.com Try to keep your "issue" focused and clear. I want to represent retiree issues fairly and competently. You can help me by a concise statement of the problem/issue you have. A word of caution: I doubt the group will deal with matters currently the subject of ongoing litigation. They may get into issues related to communication about these matters, but the nitty-gritty details may not be up for discussion.

Everybody Have Fun Tonight

Over on Jack Bog's site there is a lively and fun discussion of names you would give to the Portland City Council if they were a rock group. The proposed names are fun. It seems that we could have a similar good time if we poked fun at (a) the PERS Board (b) the PERS and Employers Attorneys (c) the various Media and (d) the various Judges involved, including the Supreme Court. What IF each of these were rock groups. What would you call them. To start, I'd be inclined to propose a name for the PERB, including Paul Cleary, and call them "Paul Cleary and the Raiders", or "Mike Pittman and the Mechanics". For the PERB lawyers - Joe Malkin and Bill Gary - "Stoned Temple Pilots". Use your imagination. Go to my interactive website and leave your suggestions over there. The winners will be honored by having their names used in place of the real names in some of my posts. This is good, clean fun and is a nice way to divert attention from the real problems we all are dealing with. Let your creative juices run wild. PERS can't take those away.

Hungry Heart

You'll notice a new element on the upper left of this site. I've joined Kevin Bacon's "Six Degrees" web network. The goal of "Six Degrees" is to raise money for charity. At a certain level, Kevin Bacon himself will match the donations made to Oregon Food Bank through this site on a dollar for dollar basis. Since the sight of hungry people in our affluent country really angers, bewilders, and frustrates me, I have decided that it is my "pet" cause. My wife and I give substantial amounts of money annually to the Oregon Food Bank. My daughter does volunteer work there through her school's community service program. I know that I can't single-handedly stamp out hunger in our community, but I want to do whatever I can to raise people's awareness of this significant problem in our society. I provide the news and commentary here with no expectation of financial remuneration. Many people have indicated how valuable they find the site. If you really find the site valuable, please consider making a small (or large) donation to the Oregon Food Bank through this site. Not only will you be helping people in genuine need in our own communities, you will also be indirectly showing support for the work I'm doing on your behalf. My only regret with the "Six Degrees" organization has been their inability to get the credit card companies to donate their fees and charges so that 100% of the money donated can go directly to the Oregon Food Bank. You can offset this yourself, or let "Six Degrees" deduct it from your donation. It is up to you. Regardless of how you feel about this feature, please do consider making a donation. It is the least you can do to make me feel that my efforts here are worthwhile. Thank you.

Blowin' in the Wind

The answer my friends, is blowin in the wind. My email box runneth over. The dogs have been unleashed and all those people who retired around mid-2004 are now discovering just how much of a "do over" PERS got. I've heard from about a dozen post April 1, 2004 retirees of the following scenario. You've gotten your recalculation letter. Your "at retirement" balance is higher AFTER the Strunk/Eugene adjustment than before (in one case, more than $20,000) higher. First, for the good news. The reason your balance is higher is because PERS was forced to pay you 8% for 2003 on both contributions and balance, and a pro-rate of 8% for 2004 on your beginning 2004 account balance. They also reduced your 1999 balance, but the 2003 & 2004 earnings were larger than the 1999 reduction; hence an increased account balance at retirement. Now for the really bad news. If you go back to your original Notice of Entitlement - the one you got when you originally retired, you should see that your benefit was calculated on the basis of the "Lookback" (surely you've forgotten that by now). The "lookback" was created by the Legislature to give you a "floor" under your benefits so that you could still get the benefit of the "old" actuarial factors, but at a price. The price was that your account was frozen at its balance as of June 30, 2003 - nothing else was added. If, when you retired, your frozen benefit on June 30, 2003 was higher than your benefit accounting for all additional earnings and contributions after that date using the NEW (less generous) actuarial tables, you got the higher benefit. So now, four years later, they go back and they are forced to give you additional money. The consequence is that although you left money on the table to get the higher benefit, it no longer works out that way when they add in even more money. They recalculate your benefit and lo and behold, the "lookback" doesn't "win" anymore. Now, your benefit is higher using the new (higher) account balance than it is using the "lookback" in the same comparison. Voila. You get the higher benefit. Unfortunately, the higher benefit is lower than your benefit when you had the lookback because you're under the NEW actuarial tables. Still more unfortunately, PERS is obliged to "give" you the highest benefit. And sadly, the higher benefit is still lower than your previous benefit because you're now using different actuarial tables. Remember that the lookback preserved the "old" tables (the ones usually called the 1978 tables). After the Strunk/Eugene adjustments, you end up, by pure computation, under a set of tables that went into effect on 7/1/03 and are less generous than the 1978 tables.

PERS should have explained this in the letter. It would have saved them a ton of grief. Now, the only thing I can offer is that people appeal their benefit. I'm afraid the appeal won't show much except you'll get the details of the calculation so you can see how this all worked out.

I remember this topic coming up in a PERS Board meeting and the PERS staff cautioning that a complete review of calculations could end up in situations like this. Unfortunately, they underplayed their hand. It looks like it is happening in every single case I've heard about. So far, every single example I have where the "lookback" was the winning procedure originally, it now loses and produces a smaller gross benefit. This is a sick and cruel joke. Appeal the invoice. Make PERS do the extra work to provide you with the explanation. Make sure you thank your legislator. After you've done that, consider a contribution to one of the legal defense funds to help the litigation to stop this dead in its tracks.

P.S. In an answer to an obvious followup question. Why doesn't the "lookback" still work? Because the original lookback was formed on an assumption that is no longer legally correct. PERS calculated your "at retirement" actual account balance assuming 0% earnings for 2003 and 2004. Since the "lookback" used a pro-rate of 8% to simulate the June 30, 2003 balance, the "lookback" balance upon recalculation is actually lower than it was when originally calculated. The original "lookback" continued to "freeze" the 20% for 1999 without the 0% freeze. If you reduce 1999 but not the 2003 earnings rate, the revised "lookback" balance cannot possibly be higher. However, the total account balance is likely to be significantly higher because it was originally formulated with 20% for 1999, 0% for 2003, and 0% for whatever period you worked in 2004. The 1999 adjustment is common to both balances, 2003 had already been adjusted for the "lookback" but not the final account balance, and so there is virtually no way that the actual account balance adjusted for the Strunk/Eugene matter could be anything but significantly higher. And so, the "lookback" has little chance of "winning" against a significantly higher account balance after the recalculation.

Math Sucks

Even though Jimmy Buffett sings of his despair with math (tough sell for one shrewd moneymaker), the PERS math turns out not to be as hard as people are making, although PERS certainly makes life more difficult for itself by putting in extra filips on its forms that confuse rather than help. If you want the "411" explanation of what is happening, consider the forms published yesterday- particularly the first form - as our example. We have a "Before Recalculation" benefit and an "After Recalculation Benefit". One represents what you are currently getting as a result of the 1999 overcredit. The other represents what you *should be getting* after the recalculation of the 1999 interest at 11.33%. Down at the bottom of the page is a list of the COLAS that need to be applied to the revised benefit. The final number represents what your new revised benefit will be, before actuarial reduction. For the amount labeled "Your initial actuarial reduction", subtract that to get "Your recalculated benefit starting [date, 2007] under the ARM". Consider this your NEW REVISED BENEFIT and forget everything else. Nothing more will be done to you. From that benefit forward - assuming it is computed correctly - you will get COLA adjustments on the NEW REVISED BENEFIT. You should never see another ARM reduction as they've just taken it away from you forever in "one touch". Presto, your account is in PERS harmony and PERS doesn't have to fiddle with anything related to your account again except for those annual COLAS. The ARM amount is a one-time reduction to your permanent benefit. The issue of increased ARM payments is a "red herring" as this is invisible to you. PERS is simply banking your ARM monthly and has to apply the COLA to it in the same way it applies a COLA to your benefit. Unless PERS is looking to needlessly complicate its life, there is no reason for it to do anything else. You'll be repaying for the rest of your life in the form of a permanently reduced benefit. I sincerely hope this helps people understand what is going on.

Everyone Is Going Mad

The PERS machine just rolls on, running over people with gay abandon. Yesterday I finally laid hands and eyes on a copy of the form PERS is sending out to retirees when they are "invoiced" for the 1999 "overpayment" and the implementation of the Strunk/Eugene remediation. The form looks pretty straightforward and, for the most part, doesn't seem to lack any essential information needed for a mathematically competent record keeper to verify. Here is an example of a straightforward form submitted by a recipient with ALL original numbers from PERS. (Other identifiers have been photographically removed). There is nothing unusual about this form, although some were surprised to see the way PERS phrased the matter of the actuarial recovery amount (note the asterisk and what it attaches to). As a result of this form, I concluded that the PERS forms were probably adequate and that they weren't as awful as had been alleged by a deluge of emails I had received from recent recipients. But that was before I got the next one. This is from a retiree who left the PERS system 3 months outside the "window" and therefore came under a different set of rules. His situation is bizarre, to say the least, as he had been led to expect, not unreasonably, that his benefit would rise because of the decision involving the 8% earnings to be paid on 2003 contributions and on the 2004 balance. Alas, look at this form and its second page. You get bonus points if you can explain how this person has a HIGHER total account balance AFTER the Strunk/Eugene adjustments but a LOWER monthly benefit. Needless to say, this is one extremely unhappy retiree who feels he has been led like a lamb to slaughter in the PERS "play by whatever rules we happen to think of at the moment" game. Comments welcome on my other blog here. For the record, I advised this retiree to contest his invoice as it makes no sense.

Wasted Time

An intrepid "window retiree" finally faxed me a copy of her invoice from PERS. Let me say that after looking the letter over carefully, there is very little missing. PERS has supplied what it said it would supply and a reader armed with a 1999 Member Statement and a Notice of Entitlement could easily check the numbers. The form is pretty transparent. I take back the evil things I wrote yesterday. If you can't calculate whether PERS is correct or not from what they've sent, dig out the two forms, an Excel spreadsheet and calculate. Everything you need in present on those sheets of paper. And BTW, those are the same sheets of paper you need to use my calculator.

Comfortably Numb

I've been stunned by the number of people who have emailed me with questions about how to challenge PERS on the recalculation letters. Back in September 2005, PERS presented its plan to the Board, the stakeholder attorneys, and a fairly large audience of union representatives and plain old affected citizens like me. The "Strunk/Eugene" remediation plan included a phase in which retirees would receive two letters, the first informing them of PERS' intent to adjust their benefits in accordance with the rulings in Strunk/Eugene cases and the "settlement agreement". The second of these letters would *detail* the calculations and lead the retiree to the recalculated amounts. PERS promised that the letter would contain enough information for the retiree to determine how PERS arrived at the recalculated benefit. Although I've not actually laid eyes on a single letter, I have nearly 150 emails telling me that the numbers just aren't there and there is no way for a retiree to reconstruct much of anything from the information provided with the letter. PERS assured us that this wouldn't happen. In fact it is. This borders on criminal contempt. I wrote my Lipscomb calculator to allow retirees to estimate the effect the Strunk/Eugene remediation would have on their benefits, assuming a July 1, 2007 implementation date. From reports I get, my calculator turns out to be pretty good - estimates are frequently within a few pennies of PERS' own calculation. But this is absolutely and positively no excuse for PERS to not supply members with the ability to check the calculations on their own. PERS should be supplying members with a template that walks through the calculations following the same algorithm PERS is using to compute the benefit adjustments. It is the least we can expect. Otherwise, EVERY RETIREE receiving one of these letters, should challenge the adjustment for no other reason than to force PERS to supply ALL the numbers making up the calculation. We cannot afford to be comfortably numb. If we accept PERS' numbers without independently verifying them, we might as well give PERS the gun to shoot ourselves with. They've already got a reputation as a rogue agency, interpreting Supreme Court rulings willy-nilly and making up rules as they go along. We cannot sit back idly and let them continue to shove things down our throats (and other parts of our anatomy). Don't be comfortably numb. Challenge the letter.

The Long Line of Pain

Gertrude Himmelfarb once titled a book "On Looking Into the Abyss". In it she ruminated about the culture wars and how they would play out in the future. Although I don't share any of Himmelfarb's views, nor those of her husband Irving Kristol and son William, I thought she represented the future as presciently as just about anyone else of her generation. Lately, I've been reading and partipating in discussions elsewhere and via email with PERS retirees who've begun to get very tired, irritated, and frustrated by the lack of any movement on any of the Court cases litigating all things related to the PERS Board's "do over" of the 1999 earnings crediting decision. Some people are antsy about the slowness with which PERS is moving; others are angry that the PERS Coalition doesn't show more aggressiveness in pursuing options that they believe will force PERS' hand. Others ruminate and argue over what exactly the Supreme Court meant by its reference to "fixed benefits" and "without errors" in its Strunk Decision. Others are indignant that PERS is acting like the Supreme Court never ruled and seems to be writing its own rulebook. Others (including me) point out the inherent conflict of interest that arises in some of the legal proceedings between the interests of active (or non-retired) PERS members and those who retired during the "window" or thereafter. Some adamantly cling to the quaint notion that "justice delayed is justice denied". I suppose this is all natural, especially when this melodrama has been played out in so many different courtrooms, in the legislature, and in the newspapers since early 2000. And I don't have an answer or advice to give. I can stare into the same abyss everyone else is viewing and all I see is another 2 or 3 years before all legal avenues are exhausted. The current process being used by PERS to implement what they're calling "Strunk/Eugene" remediation, was agreed to by lawyers (and presumably the client groups they represent) for ALL parties in September 2005 [note added 2/22 - it is significant to note that OPRI and plaintiff Sartain did NOT agree to the one touch, but OPRI's attorney was not present at the 9/2005 meeting, and his letter did not make it into the Board packet because of OPRI's indecisiveness about whether to seek legal input on this matter. I definitely stand corrected on this point.] PERS is moving at the pace it said it would move, perhaps a bit more quickly but not a lot faster. The calculations are turning out to be pretty much in accord with what I programmed into my calculator, unfortunately. The "one touch" approach seemed like a good idea back in 2005 when several of the current cases got launched. It still seemed like a good idea when Judge Kantor announced in both Arken and Kantor that he would make decisions relatively quickly. But that was nearly 6 months ago and most people have difficulty understanding that legal time and geological time are close cousins. In geological time, 2 million years is really fast, but humans can't grasp its speed. To lawyers, a year seems like an instant, but clients can't grasp that it is fast. I don't have any magic wand I can wave and make the judicial system move faster. I have no pull with the lawyers that would suddenly make them "see the light" and move for some sort of action that would (a) stop PERS from continuing what it is doing and (b) sequester funds currently being withheld from retirees into a safe account that will be paid out with interest if the retirees ultimately win. All I can say is that if PERS loses, "one touch", will become "two or more touch" and that is PERS' problem, not mine. Obviously PERS is confident that it will win; otherwise it wouldn't be moving the way it is. So my advice is to sit back, grouse all you want, but expect the grousing to fall on deaf ears from the legal and judicial community. They will decide when they decide, and then someone will appeal and the wait will begin anew. And from there, its possible for a final appeal to the Supreme Court, which is where we all expect this to go for "final" (good god I hope so) resolution and clarification. We have no choice but to endure this long line of pain.

Note added 9:14 pm. If you want to discuss this post openly, please go to my other blog site www.orpersinfo.com and post your comments to the entry "Waiting On the World To Change". It is the most current addition to that site.

When The Ball Drops

My last entry motivated a fair number of readers to email me about PERS' schedule for invoicing. "When will I be next?" is the common question. Folks, PERS doesn't keep me posted on their invoicing cycle. The people who've written to me have come from all over the retirement map, from 1999 to 2003, and from all different types of circumstances. As best I can tell -- and I may well be wrong -- PERS still seems to be "testing" their invoicing by sending out invoices to nearly randomly selected individuals to make sure they've gotten all the billing issues straight and all the calculations and explanations correct. There is nothing I've seen or heard that indicates that PERS has begun a regular and systematic billing of retirees. I suspect that will begin in March and continue for several years. It has also been suggested elsewhere that PERS' stringing this out over such a long period of time is deliberate, but not for the reasons they give. The usual reasons cite manpower shortages, desire to restrict the "damage" to any one retiree by waiting for the "crossover" of benefits to occur, etc. That is all plausible, but one wonders if something more deliberate isn't going on. Why is it that so few retirees - compared to the total number affected - are so vocal about the PERS "takeback"? Do you think that maybe PERS wants to bill slowly so that they never bill enough people to gain a critical mass of outrage? Imagine what would happen if 37,000 bills went out all at one time? Now imagine if only 1,000 bills go out each month? Big difference in reaction. Hard to organize opposition when only a few people at a time get notified. And believe me, relatively few people know enough to be worried about the impact. Most are completely clueless and will continue to be until they get that bill. I know because some of the folks being billed are just now becoming aware there is a problem. Favorite comment: "Why is this happening to me?" "What caused this to happen?". My only response is: "What planet have you been living on for the past 5 years?" Slow billing - PERS manpower shortage and PERS desire to "be nice" or PERS strategy for keeping groups of unhappy people small at any given time? Enough to make you wonder.

Pay The Devil

I don't know whether this is good news or bad news, but I've now heard from about half a dozen people who've gotten their invoices from PERS. First, for the good news. It appears that my Lipscomb calculator is providing people with nearly dead accurate estimates of their adjusted benefits from PERS. The bad news is that I figured it out and programmed it correctly. It is always nice for a programmer to know that his work turns out to be good and reasonably accurate. But this was one instance where I had secretly hoped that my calculator would provide worst case scenarios rather than dead accurate predictions. Any inaccuracies found in the calculator versus PERS' actual invoiced amounts are, in all likelihood, the result of the fixed date for implementation built into the calculator, which is different from the actual date of implementation by PERS. But as we get closer and closer to July 1, 2007, the size of the estimates between my calculator and PERS' invoices should decrease. Other possible sources of inaccurancies result from accounts with a variable component remaining at retirement, buy backs of waiting time, and other nuances that just aren't possible for me to program as the rules are too complex for me to distill into a single-purpose calculator. But, for 85% of the "window retirees", my calculator should give results good enough for people to depend on as a fairly reasonable portrayal of their actual tariff to the devil. For whatever that's worth.