Thursday, May 12, 2005

Intuition

Call it that, but I can't help note the significance of this coming Friday - the day the final May revenue forecast is publicized. The May forecast is the one the Legislature uses to do final budgeting for the coming biennium. I just wonder -- maybe it's intuition and nothing else -- whether next week won't be the week for the Supreme Court to release its City of Eugene decision. So far, every significant decision (the Strunk decision and the Li decision) have been released right after some major legislative milestone or event. The budget numbers represent the last hurdle for the Legislature before setting final agency budgets and coming to a budget compromise. The last piece of the equation is the City of Eugene case, which will determine how much additional money will need to be carved out the budget, or how much extra revenue agencies can expect. While I'm not confident enough to bet on this happening, I can't help but notice the event and the length of time it has taken since Strunk. The original prediction after Strunk was 6 - 8 weeks for City of Eugene. Next week would be about 9 weeks after Strunk, close enough that even a horsehoe player would be excited. We'll see. Don't complain if I'm wrong.

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