Confusion Wheel

There seems to be some confusion following the State Economist's report on September 23, 2020. The good news is that tax revenues for the 19-21 biennium are on target to hit needed revenue to finish out the current two year cycle. The bad news. This has led some of my correspondents to think that PERS won't be a target in the upcoming 2021 Legislative Session. While I'm not a seer, a forecaster, or witch, I think such thinking is foolish, especially when you look in the same document and see what revenue forecasts are, this far out, for 21-23. If you don't think those forecasts are worrisome, there is something seriously wrong with your thinking, or you believe in magical thinking. My advice. Look at those numbers carefully, and plan accordingly. If you think PERS isn't going to be a ripe target for the Legislature in 2021, you are fooling yourself into mass confusion. It will be, and while I am unable to speculate right now on what the targets will be, I can state with certainty that there will be PERS cuts proposed during the next full Legislative Session.